Stock Market Guru Releases 2020 Predictions

Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien releases an annual list in which he makes predictions for the upcoming year.

Wien calls it his “Ten Surprises” list. Many analysts consider Wien’s annual list a must-read.

Wien has 50 years of experience on Wall Street and has been publishing his list since he was the chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley in 1986.

Today Wien copublishes the list with Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist at Blackstone.

For a prediction to be considered a surprise, Wien and Zidle have to believe that the event has a greater than 50% chance of occurring, while the standard investor may have it closer to being a one in three chance.

Wien and Zidle’s overall prediction for the economy is that “the economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided.”

They also have Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell lowering “the Fed funds rate to 1%.”

Regarding the Phase 2 trade deal with China, Wien and Zidle write, “there is no comprehensive Phase Two trade deal that limits China’s ability to acquire intellectual property.”

Politically, they correctly predicted that “Donald Trump is not convicted or removed from office,” and further more believe that “Democrats take the Senate in November.”

Finally, regarding the stock market, Wien and Zidle write, “a surge in investor enthusiasm pushes the Standard & Poor’s 500 above 3500 at some point during the year.”

The benchmark index is only about 200 points away at this writing.

Furthermore, they write, “volatility increases and there are several market corrections greater than 5% throughout the year.”

FAANG stocks, which gave the markets an enormous push in 2019, “underperform.”

The entire list can be read here

‘Splinternet’ risk

A potentially devastating effect should the U.S. and China fail to reach a comprehensive Phase 2 trade deal is the rise of the “splinternet.”

The “splinternet” is also known as cyber balkanization.

Both terms refer to “whereby governments seek to fence off the World Wide Web into a series of national Internets.” 

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has said, “the Chinese Firewall will lead to two distinct internets. The U.S. will dominate the Western internet, and China will dominate the internet for all of Asia.”

Writing about the “splinternet,” Wien and Zidle predict, “the development of separate standards for 5G and other tech hardware proves to be bad news for the future of world economies.”

biden wins

What I’m Telling Investors to Do If Biden Wins the White House

The value of our Bulletproof Wealth Report model portfolio declined modestly over the past several trading days ending Sept. 27, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 822 points

Options: Meandering Market Tamed by Using a Straddle or a Strangle

When you hear talk of markets trending, people think of uptrends or downtrends. However, markets often get stuck in a trading range. This is the condition where there is no

Warning! Market ‘Death Cross’ Appears

A death cross! According to Investopedia: The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a

5 Best Stocks to Buy If Trump Wins the Election

If President Donald Trump wins the election on November 3, 2020, you might want to consider adding these five equities positions to your portfolio: LMT, BAC, AMZN, XLE, TWTR. Why?

5 Best Stocks to Buy If Biden Wins the Election

If Vice President Joe Biden wins the election on November 3, 2020, you might want to consider adding these five equities positions to your portfolio: XLU, TSLA, XLV, MLM, and

TGIF — Ending the Week with a Whimper

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen. In Monday's "The Week Ahead — 200,000 Deaths Weigh Heavily on the Market," we knew the 200,000th American death would put Covid back

Even If the Overall Market Continues Lower, This Staple Could Maintain Its Upward Trend

Since peaking in early September, the main indices have all three stumbled for the last few weeks with the S&P and Nasdaq falling over 10% from their highs already. Three

tesla stock

TSLA Too Volatile? Two Option Strategies for Tesla Stock

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is one of the most popular stocks amongst investors. Led by CEO Elon Musk the electric vehicle manufacturer has disrupted the transportation industry, bringing hype to a

pot stock

Pot Stock ‘Blood in the Streets’ Buy Signal Is Here

The cannabis market has been a volatile space in recent years. A wave in legalization, particularly in Canada but also through parts of the United States, led to significant growth

Use Options as Portfolio Insurance in Rocky Times

Since the beginning of September we have seen the main U.S. indices drop. There are a number of possible reasons for the decline, but more importantly I expect the increased

4 Foreign Countries Where You Can Retire On Social Security Alone

Someone once said that retirement is not the end of the road but a highway opening to a new chapter in life. Whoever said that clearly has never experienced a

We’re Beating the Index Off the March Low: Update

The Bulletproof Wealth Report model portfolio is continuing to perform well and is now up 27.4% since the inception of our monthly newsletter on April 13, 2018. Although the value