October Market View — Looking Ahead to the Elections

Joe Biden is leading by 14 points.

No wonder Trump got sick — the old “dog ate my leadership” doesn’t work as well with voters as the sympathy vote.

The president needs something to turn his campaign around and it’s a mix of opinions as to whether the president is faking Covid to gain sympathy or whether he is so psychotic that he imperiled the lives of his driver and Secret Service agents just to do a propaganda wave outside the hospital, not to mention the staff who had to move Patient Zero out of isolation — completely against hospital policy.

Whatever the truth is about Trump, with Biden opening up an insurmountable lead just ahead of the election the market is rallying this morning and the Dow is up 200 points.

But we’re still way overbought and due for another correction.

Even with this morning’s action we’re still only at 3,360 on the S&P 500, right at the weak bounce line according to our 5% Rule™, which is also now the 200-hour (two-month) moving average.

I have called it the one-month moving average in the past but really it’s 200 market hours so more like two months or roughly the same as the 50-day moving average.

Officially, in fact, the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 is at 3,361.60 so the 5% Rule™ predicted this months ago and here we are, at the inflection point of the election, right where we’re supposed to be.

Knowing the future is useful as it lets us make good bets on the market. One month ago, we published our first edition of Real Options Investor on August 31st, when the S&P was at 3,500, we discussed four trade ideas for a bearish end to the year.

All four positions are currently on track with a 17.5% gain for the month, adding $17,450 to our virtual $100,000 tracking portfolio.

Get more analysis and specific options trades from Phil Davis by subscribing to Real Options Investor.

Recommended Articles

Delaying Retirement Can Potentially Delay Dementia

They say that retirement should be viewed as a new life adventure. But it is really a budgeting lifestyle for post-working life. And there are a lot of considerations to

Attention Ladies: These Herbs Are Important to Your Health

Women have so many demands on their bodies and minds that any relief is a blessing. That is why you need to start taking these herbs to help increase your

4 Rules That Will Bombproof Your Retirement

Financial markets often are directly correlated to the macroeconomic, social and political factors far out of our control. Herds of investors are prone to reacting in extremes whenever these macro

4 Types of Retirement Income That Will Be Taxed

As well all know, expenses may change from one year to the next, and the amount you spend may change throughout retirement as well. That's why, for many current and

Study Finds Risks of Two Commonly Taken Antidepressants

Depression is a serious mental illness — one that affects more than 15 million adults in the U.S. For some women, pregnancy can bring about new depression symptoms, or worsen

Live Near Water? You Probably Paid Too Much for Your House. Here’s Why (Map)

Even a cynic recognizes that opportunity is a key to prudent business timing. Consider home buying. If you’re in the market for a new home, and are informed and discerning

3 Reasons to Should Avoid Life Settlement Policies

Most Americans don’t take life insurance for granted because almost one out of every two Americans don’t have it. According to the Insurance Information Institute, only about 54% of Americans

Feeling Hangry? How to Avoid Food-Related Mood Swings

Food that you eat is processed into simple sugars, free fatty acids and amino acids. The nutrients are moved into the bloodstream where they are assimilated by organs, tissues, and

How to Put Your Investments On Autopilot — and Win

Are you committed to investing a part of your monthly income towards retirement? You can insulate your financial future against unforeseen emergencies and economic risks if you use an automatic

Best Time to Sell or Buy a Home? It Depends…

When's the best time to buy or sell a home? That's a great question. A lot depends on who you are, seller or buyer. Traditionally, the best time of year

6 Sneaky Habits That May Be Causing Your Overeating

Overeating? Many people vastly underestimate how many calories they consume in a day. Even if you believe you restrict your daily calorie consumption, you may be consuming more calories than

How Shark Tank Judge Barbara Corcoran Nearly Lost $400,000 — Just by Reading an Email

According to a 2017 FBI Internet Crime Report, individuals and companies lost over $5.5 billion between 2013 through 2017 due to email phishing scams. Email phishing scams are deceptive emails